As the year wraps up and the holiday lights go up, something else quietly cools down: home prices. Every year, the real estate market takes a seasonal breather, and new data shows just how much the calendar shapes both pricing and activity across California — and the rest of the country.

Between 2015 and 2024, home sales that closed in January and February (aka homes shopped during November and December) consistently came in at lower prices. In California, those winter closings averaged 7% cheaper than homes sold during the rest of the year — right in line with the national trend. It’s not hard to see why. Sellers don’t love having showings during the holidays, and buyers often shift their attention to travel, gift-giving, and year-end planning. With fewer homes on the market and fewer buyers roaming open houses, competition softens and prices ease up.

Sales activity also slows dramatically, dropping 28% in California during the holiday season. Not surprisingly, the biggest slowdowns appear in the coldest states (hello, North Dakota and New Hampshire), while the smallest dips show up in mild-weather spots like Hawaii, Florida, and Arizona. Even so, the pattern holds: winter = quieter market.

This seasonal rhythm has been around for decades. Homes tend to close most often in June and August, when families prefer to move and sellers lean on spring marketing momentum. Prices often peak in late spring or summer too — May for California — and hit their lowest point in January or February almost everywhere.

But the holidays don't just bring slowdowns; they bring opportunity. Motivated sellers, less competition, and a more relaxed industry pace can give buyers the leverage they won’t see in peak season. And for sellers who stay on the market, tasteful holiday staging, motivated buyers, and potential year-end tax benefits can work in their favor.

If you're planning a move during the holidays or early in the New Year, keep this in mind: timing isn’t everything, but it certainly plays a part. And in real estate, the calendar might just be one of the easiest tools to use to your advantage.